Ghost of Osama haunts East Africa: Will US cash in on death dividend?

Even with Osama’s death, most analysts agree that the Al Qaeda threat has not been buried with him, because in the last years when he has been underground and unable to operate freely for fear that he would be killed or captured by the Americans, some part of his loose terrorist network had drifted away and become even more fractured.

Osama though, according to US officials who have analysed materials taken from his house after he was shot dead, still remained a rallying figure, and was still able to plan operations and call Al Qaeda troops out of the trenches.

With Osama gone, and no one with his charisma in senior Al Qaeda ranks, his international network is likely to disintegrate, and its regional affiliates will have to act to raise their profile and attract financial support and recruits.

The only way they can do this is by carrying out attacks.

The wider East and North Africa are likely to pay a high price as these old Al Qaeda affiliates bolster their brand because these groups are most active in East Africa, the Horn, and North Africa.

The biggest and most active Al Qaeda associate in Africa is Al Shabaab in chaotic Somalia.

East African intelligence forces say they have foiled many Al Shabaab attacks, but in July 2010 it managed two deadly bomb attacks at venues in the Uganda capital Kampala, where fans were watching the World Cup final. Nearly 70 people were killed, and hundreds injured.

The Shabaab later said the attack was punishment for Uganda’s interference in its politics.

Uganda, with Burundi, mans the African Union peace-keeping force in Somalia, Amisom.

Amisom has a decidedly aggressive policy in dealing with militants in Somalia.

The attacks on Uganda, though claimed by Al Shabaab in Somalia, were carried out by a cell that is based in Tanzania together with elements from Kenya, indicating that the organisation has spread its tentacles around the region.

In addition, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who is wanted for the terrorist bomb attacks on the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in August 2007, which killed 244 people, is suspected to be hiding in Somalia.

Ethiopia and the US, meanwhile, have accused Eritrea of financing, training, and harbouring Somali terrorists, and of being Al Shabaab’s patron.

After the US recently dropped Sudan from its list of countries backing terrorism, Eritrea enjoys the unique distinction of being the only African state sponsor of terrorism.

Sources- The East African